I always look forward to Mary’s presentation at Web 2.0. Mobile is clearly about to burst thanks to the iPhone. This reminds me of the shifts from mainframe to client server and client server to web.
Key insights from the presentation:
Economy (we are not out of the woods yet)
- VIX has settled down into normal territory.
- S&P 500 positive earnings estimate revisions are rising.
- Technology spending seems to have bottomed.
- Retail sales and e-commerce growth seem to have bottomed.
- Manufacturing (based on PMI) is near normal.
Not so good news
- Borrowing costs are still relatively high.
- Consumer confidence is still well below normal.
- Manufacturing capacity utilization is very low implying weak demand.
- New home sales are well below normal.
- Credit card delinquency rates are well above normal and rising.
- Residential mortgage defaults are at an all time high and rising.
- Commercial mortgage defaults are rising.
- Unemployment is high and rising (Mary points out that unemployment peaking is key for sustainable recovery).
- Debt levels are at historically high levels and rising.
- US income statement – expenses exceed revenue and expenses are growing rapidly. 13T debt = $110K per household – 2x median annual income.
- Mobile Internet is and will be bigger than most think.
- Mobile is the next major computing cycle.
- Mobile internet usage is growing faster than desktop usage did.
- Mary predicts 3G usage will hit inflection point in 2010 (>20% usage).
- Location-based services are key to the mobile internet ’secret sauce’.
- The iPhone/iTouch represent the fastest hardware user growth in consumer technology history.
- Next generation platforms (social networking + mobile) are driving massive change in communication and commerce.
- Look to Japan for guidance on where mobile is headed in the US.
- Mobile data traffic is growing at an enormous rate putting strain on networks.
- Mobile-related share shifts will create/destroy material shareholder wealth.